Coronavirus: The Threat

[steve25805 126,023]

This coronavirus thing spreading in China and popping up elsewhere has all the hallmarks of a global pandemic in it's earliest stages.

It can be caught as easily as a cold. 

It has an incubation period of up to two weeks before any symptoms show, during which time it is still infectious. Infected people could be wandering around for up to two weeks, spreading it to others without even knowing they have it.

Those currently known to be infected in China have rocketed from 2500 to 4500 in just 24 hours, though this is thought to be an under-estimate. It is therefore clearly spreading rapidly in spite of lockdowns. 100 have now died, which is 1 in 45. The first cases of secondary infection are occurring in other countries in people who have never even been to China.

Consider something as contagious as a cold - but far more dangerous - spreading to for example the UK. We have a population of over 60 million. If only one in five of us catch it that is still 12 million people. If it kills I in every 45 that amounts to 27,000 deaths in the UK alone. And that is assuming that something as infectious as a cold only infects one in five. If it affects three in five that is 80,000 deaths. In the UK alone. Or 400,000 in the USA. And millions perhaps being ill enough to require hospitalisation.

This is potentially very serious indeed. It could kill millions globally.

I hope they can somehow contain it, but fear it is probably already too late.

[speedy3471 10,655]

There are already confirmed cases of it here on Canada. In the city of Toronto. It could very well spread like wildfire 

[HitEmAll 1,066]

I agree with steve25805's very interesting analysis. This virus seems to spread pretty damn fast.. And that long incubation period makes the thing really hard to deal with, I guess.

[speedy3471 10,655]

It's a nasty virus thats for sure. Could be a major killer like Steve mentioned. It's bad news

[steve25805 126,023]

5 minutes ago, HitEmAll said:

I agree with steve25805's very interesting analysis. This virus seems to spread pretty damn fast.. And that long incubation period makes the thing really hard to deal with, I guess.

I know. Think how many people might be out there infecting many more people without even knowing they have it for two weeks. Worst case scenario is that the number of infected people out there who don't even know they have it yet could be very large and multiplying rapidly.

In two weeks time we might well have a much better idea of how bad this is as symptoms increasingly start revealing themselves in more people.

[PissFanOmega 206]

As far as I'm concerned, the second news hit that it went international, every effected area should have been quarantined, and all areas outside of it should have stopped all travel.

The very fact that this thing is still spreading, despite lockdown, tells me that it's already further along than those lockdowns, and drastic measures need to be taken to contain it.

If I were in charge: National State of Emergency. No travel, period. Not out of town, certainly not out of state. Officials want to stop this thing, they need to limit all contact, and keep it from moving from where it already is.

[speedy3471 10,655]

43 minutes ago, PissFanOmega said:

As far as I'm concerned, the second news hit that it went international, every effected area should have been quarantined, and all areas outside of it should have stopped all travel.

 

I totally agree. All flights coming from the infected areas shouldn't of been grounded. No travel in or out

[steve25805 126,023]

5 hours ago, peeingone said:

I hope this is controlled and does not get out of hand. It reminds Me of the birdflu outbreak from 2003. But I think this has sadly taken more life than that outbreak from 2003. 

It is sadly much more infectious than bird flu and can be caught as easily as a cold.

 

[steve25805 126,023]

4 hours ago, speedy3471 said:

I totally agree. All flights coming from the infected areas shouldn't of been grounded. No travel in or out

For sure. Only days ago flights were arriving in London from Hubei province where the infection began. No screening of new arrivals. No attempt to keep track of them. The only action taken was to hand all arrivals an NHS Direct leaflet informing them of who to contact if they should experience being ill. Meanwhile, if any of them are infected they are currently wandering our streets not realising it and infecting many they come into contact with. If this is happening - and it all depends upon whether or not any infected people were on that or other planes - within a week or two it could all start blowing up in our faces. By then it could have spread to so many other people who don't yet know they have it that it will be uncontainable in the UK.

Our incompetent government has been unbelievably lax in the face of the threat. No screening at airports even of planeloads from the infected areas.

[steve25805 126,023]

The powers that be are idiots for not responding drastically. Because a virus recognises no international borders. It recognises no barriers of race, class, nationality or status. The powers that be with something like this are as much at risk as the rest of us. If it starts killing people, some of them will be it's victims too.

[likesToLick 10,216]

I'm due to fly to Thailand in three weeks.  I hope we have a clearer idea of the risk by then.  I don't want to cancel my trip because I would lose a substantial amount of money on non-refundable bookings,  but if there turns out to be significant danger, it's obviously better to lose a few thousands than to lose one's life.

[Peefreak99 3,722]

I say close the borders of all nations until this is solved 

[steve25805 126,023]

Some worrying developments.

The virus appears to be spreading beyond Chinese control. We have had a third case in the UK , the first two being a Chinese student and his mother. This third case was a British national who caught it in Singapore and never went anywhere near China. This strongly suggests that it is starting to spread in other countries. He is now hospitalised with the complication of pneumonia. The number of cases here and everywhere else is likely to multiply in the weeks and months ahead. National health services are going to struggle to cope. In China they are already filling stadia of every kind with beds for the infected.

It looks very much like containment is failing and all that is being achieved is slowing down the spread, which is only buying us time.

Some new stats. Aside from killing one in 50, it has been revealed that 80% of the deaths are people over 60 or people with underlying health conditions like diabetes or heart or lung problems. I myself am diabetic. It therefore follows that the mortality rate will be much lower than 1 in 50 for younger and healthier people, but much higher for older people or those with other conditions - like me!

I am growing seriously concerned. I am more convinced than ever that we are on the cusp of a global pandemic. And quite aside from the health and mortality concerns and probable overwhelming of health services, the economic impact is also likely to be devastating globally. A major pandemic of worrying proportions is now I fear only a matter of time.

[steve25805 126,023]

On 2/3/2020 at 8:53 PM, Peefreak99 said:

I say close the borders of all nations until this is solved 

I sympathise with this but the problem is that some nations - the UK being one of them - do not produce anything like enough of their own food to feed their populations. Food importation is necessary for survival. But we ought to be far more stringent with passenger flights than we have been.

[F.W 5,734]

This is because of political correctness.All flights from China should have been stopped,and Chinese people banned from travelling.

Also,its because of the disgusting eating habits of the Chinese.Its thought this virus comes from eating bats.Among animal populations,there are many viruses that exist that those creatures have evolved to live with,yet if another species,say,humans,encounters it,it can mutate quickly and become lethal.This is down to wildlife crimes that no-one tried to stop.

[steve25805 126,023]

2 minutes ago, F.W said:

This is because of political correctness.All flights from China should have been stopped,and Chinese people banned from travelling.

Also,its because of the disgusting eating habits of the Chinese.Its thought this virus comes from eating bats.Among animal populations,there are many viruses that exist that those creatures have evolved to live with,yet if another species,say,humans,encounters it,it can mutate quickly and become lethal.This is down to wildlife crimes that no-one tried to stop.

This has nothing to do with political correctness in my opinion and everything to do with shortsighted greed. No one wanted the flights to stop because of the money that would be lost.

Greedy capitalist short-sightedness and the stupidity of governments - including ours - lie at the root of this.

And the sale of live animals for home slaughter has now been banned in China in response to this outbreak. But that is a bit like closing the stable door after the horse has bolted in this case.

[speedy3471 10,655]

10 hours ago, steve25805 said:

But we ought to be far more stringent with passenger flights than we have been.

Every nations should be taking this precaution. 

This virus will circle the globe in no time. Its gonna get alot worse before things get better

[Scot_Lover 1,876]

2019-nCoV has already killed more people than SARS-CoV which only had a mortality rate of 1%, it will get worse, trust me. MERS-CoV had a mortality rate of 34%, but this virus is only spread though very close contact with an infected person.

My sister has arrived back at WHO in Geneva, if had a couple of emails from her. Not sure if they are sending her to China, it's been reported that the Dr who reported the outbreak has died.

Because this thing is a virus, there is bugger all they can do for it, it's just like a flu, and how many people stay home in isolation when they have a flu? Antibiotics are ineffective, they may assist the immune system, but if your immune system is compromised, not much benefit will be noticed. Latest info is that some HIV medications are being tried, no results from that yet. 

With massive cities, poverty and just the sheer density of the population, the WHO were waiting for the next outbreak, it’s only a matter of time, and because nothing changes, or changes so slowly, this will happen again and again until the planet will have another Dark Age.

 

[FlyingthedreamUK 248]

My only recommendation here is to take every precaution you can to secure your own health, especially if you have underlying health issues.

I fly to Asia a lot, and everyone here are wearing face masks etc.. and while they may not stop the person from contracting the virus, they will hopefully reduce it from being spread.

I'm not sure how serious everyone is taking back home but I would consider the use of masks etc if you commute a lot on public transport or crowded areas. Especially on aircraft.

[speedy3471 10,655]

19 hours ago, Scot_Lover said:

 

Because this thing is a virus, there is bugger all they can do for it, it's just like a flu, and how many people stay home in isolation when they have a flu? 

 

If people would just stay home when they feel sick it would go along ways in stopping viruses from spreading.

I don't get a flu shot either, unless the coming years flu virus is the same train as the one you get inoculated for its ineffective. Some years here in Canada it's only 10 percent effective. Viruses mutate very rapidly 

[steve25805 126,023]

Well, things are getting really serious now. We are staring into a frightening abyss, both socially and economically.

And we have idiots like Trump and Johnson in charge. God help us!

I myself as a diabetic am now self-isolating for 12 weeks, but I expect that by the end of that period things will be at their worst - unless warm weather slows it, which would be good news for the northern hemisphere if it happened with summer approaching, but less good for the southern with winter on the way. But warm weather slowing it might well be a vain hope anyway.

Things are looking bad here in the UK right now with thousands losing their jobs, all pubs, clubs, restaurants, cafes, gyms and cinemas closed, government taking drastic measures, the numbers affected - and dying - starting to rocket, panic buying in supermarkets. We are only weeks behind the disastrous situation in Italy where over 700 have died today alone and doctors are having to make life and death decisions about who gets a ventilator and who does not, with their health system approaching being overwhelmed. And they have far more ventilators and intensive care beds per person than we do in the UK.

This is going to be the defining crisis of our age. We are going to come out of the other side of it a changed nation and world. The economic, cultural, social, and political changes likely to be wrought will in many cases be permanent, but as yet unpredictable. But potentially frightening, as scary crises can drive people to extremes. 

[Scot_Lover 1,876]

We have a statewide shutdown commencing Tuesday, our time. Schools will get Easter break 4 days early, cafes, gym and pubs will need to close. We have been a little slack in our social distancing with this wedding, but that will change after today. 
 

Gubermint has implemented a welfare plan, getting people paid, access to superannuation, and telco’s have waived data limits, we have 25gb on both our phones and on one of the iPads. AFL has been postponed, and the AFWL (women’s) has been abandoned altogether.

I’ll get back with more info as it unfolds.
 

Let us know how your country handles this pestilence.

[likesToLick 10,216]

I'm back in Australia, having cut short my Thailand holiday and taken an earlier flight home.   My original return flights were cancelled,  and there is a strong possibility that international air travel will soon be completely suspended,  so I'm glad I managed to get back to Australia without getting stranded. It's good to be home.

I'm now confined to my house for 14 days of mandatory quarantine.  Not a problem for me because I am retired and have everything I need at home.  Woolworths are providing a service for home delivery of groceries to people who are in quarantine,  and I had my first delivery yesterday.  The truck driver left everything on the ground outside the front door,  and I then picked it up and carried it inside after he had moved away,  so there was no risk of me transmitting any virus to him.

Payment was made on-line so no cash needs to change hands.

I plan to continue to self isolate as much as possible over the next few months.

[steve25805 126,023]

Here in the UK we are now on total lockdown by law throughout the nation.

No one is allowed out except to get food and meds, or for a brief exercise once a day alone. No one is allowed to travel to work except for key workers.

All non-essential businesses have been closed down.

The rules are going to be enforced by the police issueing fines to those who break them.

This is serious shit now and many of us are scared.

[likesToLick 10,216]

8 hours ago, steve25805 said:

No one is allowed out except to get food and meds, or for a brief exercise once a day alone. No one is allowed to travel to work except for key workers.

Steve,  since you work in food supplies,  will you be a key worker?  The supermarkets here are hiring thousands of extra people who will be filling orders for home delivery to people who are locked down.

It's a massive upheaval,  but it sounds like your government is taking it very seriously,  which is a good thing.

Australia's Tory government has made a complete backflip and begun implementing many socialist policies in order to keep the economy alive while so many businesses are closed down.   (They will never admit this of course,  but I'm glad they had the gumption to actually do it.)  Their long standing policy of "starve the poor into submission" has been thrown out of the window now, as more than a million extra people have become unemployed.

I'm not sure how long the lock downs will need to continue,  but I suspect it may have to be until a vaccine is produced and a majority of the population has been inoculated.  One thing is for sure,  our society will not ever be the same again as it was a month ago.

Good luck to you. Take care,  keep your distance from others and take no unnecessary risks.  I have confidence that our civilisation can survive this.